Germany - Type of contract: Service Title of the contract: Further development MO

Description

Type of contract:
Service

Title of the contract:
Further development of MOS

Short description:
The BSH is named as the operator of the forecast and warning services in the Maritime Tasks Act (§1 No. 9 and §5 Para. 1 No. 4), here explicitly with the tide, water level forecast and storm surge warning service. In addition, the services are listed as critical infrastructures in accordance with Section 8a (BSI Act BSIG, KritisV). This means that the BSH is obliged to provide forecasts with high accuracy and reliability at all times.
Two independent methods are used in the water level forecast service (WVD):
1) the hydrodynamic-numerical model system and
2) an empirical-statistical method.
The numerical model system is constantly being improved and has been running operationally with input data from the weather service since around 1980. The empirical method is based on an investigation by an internal project.
The results of both methods are combined using a MOS method (Model Output Statistics) to optimize the forecast. The MOS method has proven itself in meteorological forecasting practice since the 1970s.
This method is being used for the first time worldwide at the BSH for the purpose of forecasting water levels on sea coasts. Systematic errors in numerical forecasting models can be eliminated in the case of point forecasts if current and historical water level measurements are available. The MOS method was developed by the company Meteo Service Weather Research (MSWR) in Berlin, which has implemented a congestion forecast for the North Sea based on MSWR-MOS. Based on the method developed for the North Sea in 2009, the system was subsequently expanded to include a MOS Baltic Sea for water level forecasts for the Baltic Sea. The North Sea methodology was also able to achieve significant improvements in the model results for the Baltic Sea, but is poorly adapted to the conditions of the Baltic Sea.
The operation of MOS at the BSH has very high safety and availability requirements, which is why further development is necessary.
MOS Baltic Sea is to be extensively revised and achieve a significant improvement in water level prediction through new approaches such as wind direction-dependent coefficient sets, the consideration of additional tide gauge data and the use of HBM data as a basis.
MOS North Sea is also to be expanded. MOS North Sea is currently heavily dependent on the availability of some British and Dutch tide gauges. The availability of these gauges cannot be influenced by the BSH. If the gauges fail, no MOS forecast can be calculated for the North Sea, which is why an additional fallback security is to be developed independently of foreign gauge data.

Opportunity closing date

15 October 2024

Value of contract

to be confirmed